Dubai’s economy is expected to grow by 4.5 per cent in 2026, maintaining the same pace as 2025 and continuing to outperform global economic trends, according to the latest economic outlook from Emirates NBD.
The projected expansion will be supported by sustained strength across both the public and private sectors, a continued recovery in tourism, ongoing infrastructure investment, and steady growth in population and consumer spending.
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Tourism and Spending Drive Economic Momentum
Tourism remains a central pillar of Dubai’s growth trajectory. Visitor numbers rose by approximately 5 per cent in 2025, with 15.7 million tourists recorded between January and October alone. The sector is expected to deliver further upside in 2026, supported by Dubai’s diversified tourism offerings and expanding global connectivity.
Medical tourism has also emerged as a notable growth driver, contributing to a 20 per cent year-on-year increase in GDP for human health and social work activities during the first half of 2025.
Strong Fundamentals and Improving Financial Conditions
The outlook underscores Dubai’s robust economic fundamentals. While global GDP growth is expected to average 3.1 per cent in 2026, advanced economies are forecast to expand by 1.6 per cent and emerging markets by 4.0 per cent, positioning Dubai among the faster-growing economies globally.
Lower interest rates and improved financing conditions are expected to support higher levels of investment activity, while easing geopolitical tensions in the region are likely to reinforce investor and consumer confidence.
Population Growth Supports Long-Term Expansion
Dubai’s rapid population growth continues to play a significant role in its economic expansion. The emirate’s population crossed the 4 million mark in 2025, reflecting year-on-year growth of 5.4 per cent. Official projections estimate the population will reach 5.8 million by 2040.
This demographic expansion is driving sustained demand across key sectors, including real estate, construction, education, healthcare, and utilities, reinforcing Dubai’s long-term growth prospects.
Continued Strength Across Key Indicators
According to Emirates NBD, Dubai’s economy expanded by an estimated 4.4 per cent in the first half of 2025, up from 3.3 per cent in 2023 and 3.2 per cent in 2024. Business activity also strengthened, with the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) reaching 54.5 in October and November, its strongest reading since January.
Together, these indicators highlight Dubai’s resilient growth model, underpinned by diversification, strong domestic demand, and an investor-friendly business environment.
